Hidden Markov Model for the detection of a degraded operating mode of optronic equipment

Résumé

As part of optimizing the reliability, Thales Optronics now includes systems that examine the state of its equipment. The aim of this paper is to use hidden Markov Model to detect as soon as possible a change of state of optronic equipment in order to propose maintenance before failure. For this, we carefully observe the dynamic of a variable called "cool down time" and noted Tmf, which reflects the state of the cooling system. Indeed, the Tmf is an observation of the hidden state of the system. This one is modelled by a Markov chain and the Tmf is a noisy function of it. Thanks to filtering equations, we obtain results on the probability that an appliance is in degraded state at time $t$, knowing the history of the Tmf until this moment. We have evaluated the numerical behavior of our approach on simulated data. Then we have applied this methodology on our real data and we have checked that the results are consistent with the reality. This method can be implemented in a HUMS (Health and Usage Monitoring System). This simple example of HUMS would allow the Thales Optronics Company to improve its maintenance system. This company will be able to recall appliances which are estimated to be in degraded state and do not control too early those estimated in stable state.