Forecasting Police Calls during Peak Times for the City of Cleveland

Abstract

For a period of time, professors from the Cleveland State University worked closely with the City of ClevelandPolice Department. This partnership resulted in access to police records cataloging all emergency 911 calls forthe city since 1995. Here, we describe forecasting approaches that can be used by the Police Department basedon hourly 911 calls in the years 2001 to 2003 throughout the city during peak call time: the third shift duringsummer months. This case study is appropriate for class discussions in advanced courses in statistics to explorethe application of time series analysis techniques.